Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.889663 1.042207 1.212940 1.418211 1.658378 1.930579 2.262678
2024-10-27 0.619259 0.811911 1.052753 1.376088 1.799231 2.334820 3.065463
2024-11-03 0.496634 0.705462 0.987898 1.398091 1.979528 2.775787 3.952242
2024-11-10 0.438643 0.664975 0.991275 1.496453 2.260569 3.376222 5.135233
2024-11-17 0.383474 0.614876 0.967369 1.544043 2.466581 3.890115 6.264189
2024-11-24 0.332725 0.560853 0.925832 1.553052 2.607898 4.317922 7.316492
2024-12-01 0.288479 0.508885 0.877597 1.540249 2.706577 4.684191 8.314157
2024-12-08 0.253471 0.466321 0.837388 1.532482 2.808538 5.064048 9.383142
2024-12-15 0.227824 0.435940 0.813016 1.547293 2.949473 5.526255 10.660174
2024-12-22 0.197076 0.391278 0.756117 1.492922 2.953016 5.736156 11.491926
2024-12-29 0.189822 0.390395 0.780460 1.596117 3.270713 6.576271 13.660738
2025-01-05 0.166899 0.354881 0.732607 1.548909 3.281906 6.817773 14.656189
2025-01-12 0.146234 0.321589 0.685777 1.499469 3.286432 7.056421 15.704468
2025-01-19 0.128509 0.292074 0.642931 1.452812 3.291365 7.299317 16.806347
2025-01-26 0.118804 0.278748 0.632713 1.475920 3.452468 7.899833 18.796510
2025-02-02 0.116056 0.280827 0.656672 1.579772 3.811894 8.990899 22.085406
2025-02-09 0.109664 0.273349 0.657746 1.630023 4.052466 9.841692 24.929159
2025-02-16 0.101332 0.259911 0.642912 1.639535 4.195362 10.480077 27.344799
2025-02-23 0.092597 0.244153 0.620234 1.626017 4.278219 10.981994 29.486517
2025-03-02 0.085082 0.230438 0.600747 1.617815 4.373444 11.527688 31.825828
2025-03-09 0.079489 0.220995 0.590864 1.633454 4.533909 12.263508 34.790332
2025-03-16 0.071146 0.202869 0.555817 1.576043 4.487857 12.446530 36.251517
2025-03-23 0.070603 0.206438 0.579475 1.685008 4.921460 13.992342 41.833132